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gam {mgcv}

Generalized additive models with integrated smoothness estimation
Package: 
mgcv
Version: 
1.7-28

Description

Fits a generalized additive model (GAM) to data, the term `GAM' being taken to include any quadratically penalized GLM. The degree of smoothness of model terms is estimated as part of fitting. gam can also fit any GLM subject to multiple quadratic penalties (including estimation of degree of penalization). Isotropic or scale invariant smooths of any number of variables are available as model terms, as are linear functionals of such smooths; confidence/credible intervals are readily available for any quantity predicted using a fitted model; gam is extendable: users can add smooths.

Smooth terms are represented using penalized regression splines (or similar smoothers) with smoothing parameters selected by GCV/UBRE/AIC/REML or by regression splines with fixed degrees of freedom (mixtures of the two are permitted). Multi-dimensional smooths are available using penalized thin plate regression splines (isotropic) or tensor product splines (when an isotropic smooth is inappropriate). For an overview of the smooths available see smooth.terms. For more on specifying models see gam.models, random.effects and linear.functional.terms. For more on model selection see gam.selection. Do read gam.check and choose.k.

See gam from package gam, for GAMs via the original Hastie and Tibshirani approach (see details for differences to this implementation).

For very large datasets see bam, for mixed GAM see gamm and random.effects.

Usage

gam(formula,family=gaussian(),data=list(),weights=NULL,subset=NULL,
    na.action,offset=NULL,method="GCV.Cp",
    optimizer=c("outer","newton"),control=list(),scale=0,
    select=FALSE,knots=NULL,sp=NULL,min.sp=NULL,H=NULL,gamma=1,
    fit=TRUE,paraPen=NULL,G=NULL,in.out,...)

Arguments

formula
A GAM formula (see formula.gam and also gam.models). This is exactly like the formula for a GLM except that smooth terms, s and te can be added to the right hand side to specify that the linear predictor depends on smooth functions of predictors (or linear functionals of these).
family
This is a family object specifying the distribution and link to use in fitting etc. See glm and family for more details. A negative binomial family is provided: see negbin. quasi families actually result in the use of extended quasi-likelihood if method is set to a RE/ML method (McCullagh and Nelder, 1989, 9.6).
data
A data frame or list containing the model response variable and covariates required by the formula. By default the variables are taken from environment(formula): typically the environment from which gam is called.
weights
prior weights on the data.
subset
an optional vector specifying a subset of observations to be used in the fitting process.
na.action
a function which indicates what should happen when the data contain `NA's. The default is set by the `na.action' setting of `options', and is `na.fail' if that is unset. The “factory-fresh” default is `na.omit'.
offset
Can be used to supply a model offset for use in fitting. Note that this offset will always be completely ignored when predicting, unlike an offset included in formula: this conforms to the behaviour of lm and glm.
control
A list of fit control parameters to replace defaults returned by gam.control. Values not set assume default values.
method
The smoothing parameter estimation method. "GCV.Cp" to use GCV for unknown scale parameter and Mallows' Cp/UBRE/AIC for known scale. "GACV.Cp" is equivalent, but using GACV in place of GCV. "REML" for REML estimation, including of unknown scale, "P-REML" for REML estimation, but using a Pearson estimate of the scale. "ML" and "P-ML" are similar, but using maximum likelihood in place of REML.
optimizer
An array specifying the numerical optimization method to use to optimize the smoothing parameter estimation criterion (given by method). "perf" for performance iteration. "outer" for the more stable direct approach. "outer" can use several alternative optimizers, specified in the second element of optimizer: "newton" (default), "bfgs", "optim", "nlm" and "nlm.fd" (the latter is based entirely on finite differenced derivatives and is very slow).
scale
If this is positive then it is taken as the known scale parameter. Negative signals that the scale parameter is unknown. 0 signals that the scale parameter is 1 for Poisson and binomial and unknown otherwise. Note that (RE)ML methods can only work with scale parameter 1 for the Poisson and binomial cases.
select
If this is TRUE then gam can add an extra penalty to each term so that it can be penalized to zero. This means that the smoothing parameter estimation that is part of fitting can completely remove terms from the model. If the corresponding smoothing parameter is estimated as zero then the extra penalty has no effect.
knots
this is an optional list containing user specified knot values to be used for basis construction. For most bases the user simply supplies the knots to be used, which must match up with the k value supplied (note that the number of knots is not always just k). See tprs for what happens in the "tp"/"ts" case. Different terms can use different numbers of knots, unless they share a covariate.
sp
A vector of smoothing parameters can be provided here. Smoothing parameters must be supplied in the order that the smooth terms appear in the model formula. Negative elements indicate that the parameter should be estimated, and hence a mixture of fixed and estimated parameters is possible. If smooths share smoothing parameters then length(sp) must correspond to the number of underlying smoothing parameters.
min.sp
Lower bounds can be supplied for the smoothing parameters. Note that if this option is used then the smoothing parameters full.sp, in the returned object, will need to be added to what is supplied here to get the smoothing parameters actually multiplying the penalties. length(min.sp) should always be the same as the total number of penalties (so it may be longer than sp, if smooths share smoothing parameters).
H
A user supplied fixed quadratic penalty on the parameters of the GAM can be supplied, with this as its coefficient matrix. A common use of this term is to add a ridge penalty to the parameters of the GAM in circumstances in which the model is close to un-identifiable on the scale of the linear predictor, but perfectly well defined on the response scale.
gamma
It is sometimes useful to inflate the model degrees of freedom in the GCV or UBRE/AIC score by a constant multiplier. This allows such a multiplier to be supplied.
fit
If this argument is TRUE then gam sets up the model and fits it, but if it is FALSE then the model is set up and an object G containing what would be required to fit is returned is returned. See argument G.
paraPen
optional list specifying any penalties to be applied to parametric model terms. gam.models explains more.
G
Usually NULL, but may contain the object returned by a previous call to gam with fit=FALSE, in which case all other arguments are ignored except for gamma, in.out, scale, control, method optimizer and fit.
in.out
optional list for initializing outer iteration. If supplied then this must contain two elements: sp should be an array of initialization values for all smoothing parameters (there must be a value for all smoothing parameters, whether fixed or to be estimated, but those for fixed s.p.s are not used); scale is the typical scale of the GCV/UBRE function, for passing to the outer optimizer, or the the initial value of the scale parameter, if this is to be estimated by RE/ML.
...
further arguments for passing on e.g. to gam.fit (such as mustart).

Details

A generalized additive model (GAM) is a generalized linear model (GLM) in which the linear predictor is given by a user specified sum of smooth functions of the covariates plus a conventional parametric component of the linear predictor. A simple example is: log(E(y_i))=f_1(x_1i)+f_2(x_2i) where the (independent) response variables y_i~Poi, and f_1 and f_2 are smooth functions of covariates x_1 and x_2. The log is an example of a link function.

If absolutely any smooth functions were allowed in model fitting then maximum likelihood estimation of such models would invariably result in complex overfitting estimates of f_1 and f_2. For this reason the models are usually fit by penalized likelihood maximization, in which the model (negative log) likelihood is modified by the addition of a penalty for each smooth function, penalizing its `wiggliness'. To control the tradeoff between penalizing wiggliness and penalizing badness of fit each penalty is multiplied by an associated smoothing parameter: how to estimate these parameters, and how to practically represent the smooth functions are the main statistical questions introduced by moving from GLMs to GAMs.

The mgcv implementation of gam represents the smooth functions using penalized regression splines, and by default uses basis functions for these splines that are designed to be optimal, given the number basis functions used. The smooth terms can be functions of any number of covariates and the user has some control over how smoothness of the functions is measured.

gam in mgcv solves the smoothing parameter estimation problem by using the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) criterion n D/(n - DoF)^2 or an Un-Biased Risk Estimator (UBRE )criterion D/n + 2 s DoF / n -s where D is the deviance, n the number of data, s the scale parameter and DoF the effective degrees of freedom of the model. Notice that UBRE is effectively just AIC rescaled, but is only used when s is known.

Alternatives are GACV, or a Laplace approximation to REML. There is some evidence that the latter may actually be the most effective choice.

Smoothing parameters are chosen to minimize the GCV, UBRE/AIC, GACV or REML scores for the model, and the main computational challenge solved by the mgcv package is to do this efficiently and reliably. Various alternative numerical methods are provided which can be set by argument optimizer.

Broadly gam works by first constructing basis functions and one or more quadratic penalty coefficient matrices for each smooth term in the model formula, obtaining a model matrix for the strictly parametric part of the model formula, and combining these to obtain a complete model matrix (/design matrix) and a set of penalty matrices for the smooth terms. Some linear identifiability constraints are also obtained at this point. The model is fit using gam.fit, a modification of glm.fit. The GAM penalized likelihood maximization problem is solved by Penalized Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (P-IRLS) (see e.g. Wood 2000). Smoothing parameter selection is integrated in one of two ways. (i) `Performance iteration' uses the fact that at each P-IRLS iteration a penalized weighted least squares problem is solved, and the smoothing parameters of that problem can estimated by GCV or UBRE. Eventually, in most cases, both model parameter estimates and smoothing parameter estimates converge. (ii) Alternatively the P-IRLS scheme is iterated to convergence for each trial set of smoothing parameters, and GCV, UBRE or REML scores are only evaluated on convergence - optimization is then `outer' to the P-IRLS loop: in this case the P-IRLS iteration has to be differentiated, to facilitate optimization, and gam.fit3 is used in place of gam.fit. The default is the second method, outer iteration.

Several alternative basis-penalty types are built in for representing model smooths, but alternatives can easily be added (see smooth.terms for an overview and smooth.construct for how to add smooth classes). The choice of the basis dimension (k in the s, te, ti and t2 terms) is something that should be considered carefully (the exact value is not critical, but it is important not to make it restrictively small, nor very large and computationally costly). The basis should be chosen to be larger than is believed to be necessary to approximate the smooth function concerned. The effective degrees of freedom for the smooth will then be controlled by the smoothing penalty on the term, and (usually) selected automatically (with an upper limit set by k-1 or occasionally k). Of course the k should not be made too large, or computation will be slow (or in extreme cases there will be more coefficients to estimate than there are data).

Note that gam assumes a very inclusive definition of what counts as a GAM: basically any penalized GLM can be used: to this end gam allows the non smooth model components to be penalized via argument paraPen and allows the linear predictor to depend on general linear functionals of smooths, via the summation convention mechanism described in linear.functional.terms. Details of the default underlying fitting methods are given in Wood (2011 and 2004). Some alternative methods are discussed in Wood (2000 and 2006).

gam() is not a clone of Trevor Hastie's oroginal (as supplied in S-PLUS or package gam) The major differences are (i) that by default estimation of the degree of smoothness of model terms is part of model fitting, (ii) a Bayesian approach to variance estimation is employed that makes for easier confidence interval calculation (with good coverage probabilities), (iii) that the model can depend on any (bounded) linear functional of smooth terms, (iv) the parametric part of the model can be penalized, (v) simple random effects can be incorporated, and (vi) the facilities for incorporating smooths of more than one variable are different: specifically there are no lo smooths, but instead (a) s terms can have more than one argument, implying an isotropic smooth and (b) te or t2 smooths are provided as an effective means for modelling smooth interactions of any number of variables via scale invariant tensor product smooths. Splines on the sphere, Duchon splines and Gaussian Markov Random Fields are also available. See gam from package gam, for GAMs via the original Hastie and Tibshirani approach.

Values

If fit=FALSE the function returns a list G of items needed to fit a GAM, but doesn't actually fit it.

Otherwise the function returns an object of class "gam" as described in gamObject.

WARNINGS

The default basis dimensions used for smooth terms are essentially arbitrary, and it should be checked that they are not too small. See choose.k and gam.check.

You must have more unique combinations of covariates than the model has total parameters. (Total parameters is sum of basis dimensions plus sum of non-spline terms less the number of spline terms).

Automatic smoothing parameter selection is not likely to work well when fitting models to very few response data.

For data with many zeroes clustered together in the covariate space it is quite easy to set up GAMs which suffer from identifiability problems, particularly when using Poisson or binomial families. The problem is that with e.g. log or logit links, mean value zero corresponds to an infinite range on the linear predictor scale.

References

Key References on this implementation:

Wood, S.N. (2011) Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (B) 73(1):3-36

Wood, S.N. (2004) Stable and efficient multiple smoothing parameter estimation for generalized additive models. J. Amer. Statist. Ass. 99:673-686. [Default method for additive case by GCV (but no longer for generalized)]

Wood, S.N. (2003) Thin plate regression splines. J.R.Statist.Soc.B 65(1):95-114

Wood, S.N. (2006a) Low rank scale invariant tensor product smooths for generalized additive mixed models. Biometrics 62(4):1025-1036

Wood S.N. (2006b) Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.

Wood S.N., F. Scheipl and J.J. Faraway (2012) Straightforward intermediate rank tensor product smoothing in mixed models. Statistical Computing.

Marra, G and S.N. Wood (2012) Coverage Properties of Confidence Intervals for Generalized Additive Model Components. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 39(1), 53-74.

Key Reference on GAMs and related models:

Hastie (1993) in Chambers and Hastie (1993) Statistical Models in S. Chapman and Hall.

Hastie and Tibshirani (1990) Generalized Additive Models. Chapman and Hall.

Wahba (1990) Spline Models of Observational Data. SIAM

Wood, S.N. (2000) Modelling and Smoothing Parameter Estimation with Multiple Quadratic Penalties. J.R.Statist.Soc.B 62(2):413-428 [The original mgcv paper, but no longer the default methods.]

Background References:

Green and Silverman (1994) Nonparametric Regression and Generalized Linear Models. Chapman and Hall. Gu and Wahba (1991) Minimizing GCV/GML scores with multiple smoothing parameters via the Newton method. SIAM J. Sci. Statist. Comput. 12:383-398

Gu (2002) Smoothing Spline ANOVA Models, Springer.

McCullagh and Nelder (1989) Generalized Linear Models 2nd ed. Chapman & Hall.

O'Sullivan, Yandall and Raynor (1986) Automatic smoothing of regression functions in generalized linear models. J. Am. Statist.Ass. 81:96-103

Wood (2001) mgcv:GAMs and Generalized Ridge Regression for R. R News 1(2):20-25 Wood and Augustin (2002) GAMs with integrated model selection using penalized regression splines and applications to environmental modelling. Ecological Modelling 157:157-177

http://www.maths.bath.ac.uk/~sw283/

See Also

mgcv-package, gamObject, gam.models, smooth.terms, linear.functional.terms, s, te predict.gam, plot.gam, summary.gam, gam.side, gam.selection, gam.control gam.check, linear.functional.terms negbin, magic,vis.gam

Examples

library(mgcv)
set.seed(2) ## simulate some data... 
dat <- gamSim(1,n=400,dist="normal",scale=2)
b <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),data=dat)
summary(b)
plot(b,pages=1,residuals=TRUE)  ## show partial residuals
plot(b,pages=1,seWithMean=TRUE) ## `with intercept' CIs
## run some basic model checks, including checking
## smoothing basis dimensions...
gam.check(b)
 
## same fit in two parts .....
G <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),fit=FALSE,data=dat)
b <- gam(G=G)
print(b)
 
## change the smoothness selection method to REML
b0 <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),data=dat,method="REML")
plot(b0,pages=1,scheme=1)
 
## Would a smooth interaction of x0 and x1 be better?
## Use tensor product smooth of x0 and x1, basis 
## dimension 49 (see ?te for details, also ?t2).
bt <- gam(y~te(x0,x1,k=7)+s(x2)+s(x3),data=dat,
          method="REML")
plot(bt,pages=1) 
plot(bt,pages=1,scheme=2) ## alternative visualization
AIC(b0,bt) ## interaction worse than additive
 
## Alternative: test for interaction with a smooth ANOVA 
## decomposition (this time between x2 and x1)
bt <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3)+ti(x1,x2,k=6),
            data=dat,method="REML")
summary(bt)
 
## If it is believed that x0 and x1 are naturally on 
## the same scale, and should be treated isotropically 
## then could try...
bs <- gam(y~s(x0,x1,k=50)+s(x2)+s(x3),data=dat,
          method="REML")
plot(bs,pages=1)
AIC(b0,bt,bs) ## additive still better. 
 
## Now do automatic terms selection as well
b1 <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),data=dat,
       method="REML",select=TRUE)
plot(b1,pages=1)
 
 
## set the smoothing parameter for the first term, estimate rest ...
bp <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),sp=c(0.01,-1,-1,-1),data=dat)
plot(bp,pages=1,scheme=1)
## alternatively...
bp <- gam(y~s(x0,sp=.01)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),data=dat)
 
 
# set lower bounds on smoothing parameters ....
bp<-gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),
        min.sp=c(0.001,0.01,0,10),data=dat) 
print(b);print(bp)
 
# same with REML
bp<-gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),
        min.sp=c(0.1,0.1,0,10),data=dat,method="REML") 
print(b0);print(bp)
 
 
## now a GAM with 3df regression spline term & 2 penalized terms
 
b0<-gam(y~s(x0,k=4,fx=TRUE,bs="tp")+s(x1,k=12)+s(x2,k=15),data=dat)
plot(b0,pages=1)
 
## now simulate poisson data...
dat <- gamSim(1,n=4000,dist="poisson",scale=.1)
 
## use "cr" basis to save time, with 4000 data...
b2<-gam(y~s(x0,bs="cr")+s(x1,bs="cr")+s(x2,bs="cr")+
        s(x3,bs="cr"),family=poisson,data=dat,method="REML")
plot(b2,pages=1)
 
## drop x3, but initialize sp's from previous fit, to 
## save more time...
 
b2a<-gam(y~s(x0,bs="cr")+s(x1,bs="cr")+s(x2,bs="cr"),
         family=poisson,data=dat,method="REML",
         in.out=list(sp=b2$sp[1:3],scale=1))
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(b2a)
 
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
## similar example using performance iteration
dat <- gamSim(1,n=400,dist="poisson",scale=.25)
 
b3<-gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),family=poisson,
        data=dat,optimizer="perf")
plot(b3,pages=1)
 
## repeat using GACV as in Wood 2008...
 
b4<-gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),family=poisson,
        data=dat,method="GACV.Cp",scale=-1)
plot(b4,pages=1)
 
## repeat using REML as in Wood 2011...
 
b5<-gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),family=poisson,
        data=dat,method="REML")
plot(b5,pages=1)
 
 
## a binary example (see later for large dataset version)...
 
dat <- gamSim(1,n=400,dist="binary",scale=.33)
 
lr.fit <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),family=binomial,
              data=dat,method="REML")
 
## plot model components with truth overlaid in red
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,2))
fn <- c("f0","f1","f2","f3");xn <- c("x0","x1","x2","x3")
for (k in 1:4) {
  plot(lr.fit,residuals=TRUE,select=k)
  ff <- dat[[fn[k]]];xx <- dat[[xn[k]]]
  ind <- sort.int(xx,index.return=TRUE)$ix
  lines(xx[ind],(ff-mean(ff))[ind]*.33,col=2)
}
par(op)
anova(lr.fit)
lr.fit1 <- gam(y~s(x0)+s(x1)+s(x2),family=binomial,
               data=dat,method="REML")
lr.fit2 <- gam(y~s(x1)+s(x2),family=binomial,
               data=dat,method="REML")
AIC(lr.fit,lr.fit1,lr.fit2)
 
## A Gamma example, by modify `gamSim' output...
 
dat <- gamSim(1,n=400,dist="normal",scale=1)
dat$f <- dat$f/4 ## true linear predictor 
Ey <- exp(dat$f);scale <- .5 ## mean and GLM scale parameter
## Note that `shape' and `scale' in `rgamma' are almost
## opposite terminology to that used with GLM/GAM...
dat$y <- rgamma(Ey*0,shape=1/scale,scale=Ey*scale)
bg <- gam(y~ s(x0)+ s(x1)+s(x2)+s(x3),family=Gamma(link=log),
          data=dat,method="REML")
plot(bg,pages=1,scheme=1)
 
## For inverse Gaussian, see ?rig
 
## now a 2D smoothing example...
 
eg <- gamSim(2,n=500,scale=.1)
attach(eg)
 
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,2),mar=c(4,4,1,1))
 
contour(truth$x,truth$z,truth$f) ## contour truth
b4 <- gam(y~s(x,z),data=data) ## fit model
fit1 <- matrix(predict.gam(b4,pr,se=FALSE),40,40)
contour(truth$x,truth$z,fit1)   ## contour fit
persp(truth$x,truth$z,truth$f)    ## persp truth
vis.gam(b4)                     ## persp fit
detach(eg)
par(op)
 
##################################################
## largish dataset example with user defined knots
##################################################
 
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
eg <- gamSim(2,n=10000,scale=.5)
attach(eg)
 
ind<-sample(1:10000,1000,replace=FALSE)
b5<-gam(y~s(x,z,k=50),data=data,
        knots=list(x=data$x[ind],z=data$z[ind]))
## various visualizations
vis.gam(b5,theta=30,phi=30)
plot(b5)
plot(b5,scheme=1,theta=50,phi=20)
plot(b5,scheme=2)
 
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
## and a pure "knot based" spline of the same data
b6<-gam(y~s(x,z,k=100),data=data,knots=list(x= rep((1:10-0.5)/10,10),
        z=rep((1:10-0.5)/10,rep(10,10))))
vis.gam(b6,color="heat",theta=30,phi=30)
 
## varying the default large dataset behaviour via `xt'
b7 <- gam(y~s(x,z,k=50,xt=list(max.knots=1000,seed=2)),data=data)
vis.gam(b7,theta=30,phi=30)
detach(eg)
 
################################################################
## Approximate large dataset logistic regression for rare events
## based on subsampling the zeroes, and adding an offset to
## approximately allow for this.
## Doing the same thing, but upweighting the sampled zeroes
## leads to problems with smoothness selection, and CIs.
################################################################
n <- 100000  ## simulate n data 
dat <- gamSim(1,n=n,dist="binary",scale=.33)
p <- binomial()$linkinv(dat$f-6) ## make 1's rare
dat$y <- rbinom(p,1,p)      ## re-simulate rare response
 
## Now sample all the 1's but only proportion S of the 0's
S <- 0.02                   ## sampling fraction of zeroes
dat <- dat[dat$y==1 | runif(n) < S,] ## sampling
 
## Create offset based on total sampling fraction
dat$s <- rep(log(nrow(dat)/n),nrow(dat))
 
lr.fit <- gam(y~s(x0,bs="cr")+s(x1,bs="cr")+s(x2,bs="cr")+s(x3,bs="cr")+
              offset(s),family=binomial,data=dat,method="REML")
 
## plot model components with truth overlaid in red
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,2))
fn <- c("f0","f1","f2","f3");xn <- c("x0","x1","x2","x3")
for (k in 1:4) {
       plot(lr.fit,select=k,scale=0)
       ff <- dat[[fn[k]]];xx <- dat[[xn[k]]]
       ind <- sort.int(xx,index.return=TRUE)$ix
       lines(xx[ind],(ff-mean(ff))[ind]*.33,col=2)
}
par(op)
rm(dat)

Author(s)

Simon N. Wood simon.wood@r-project.org

Front end design inspired by the S function of the same name based on the work of Hastie and Tibshirani (1990). Underlying methods owe much to the work of Wahba (e.g. 1990) and Gu (e.g. 2002).

Documentation reproduced from package mgcv, version 1.7-28. License: GPL (>= 2)